A Libyan resistance model?

The country is in the grip of severe unrest with President Bashar Al Assad using the full of his military to quash dissent. But despite his most brutal efforts, protests continue to be a daily occurrence.

"The initial picture of the conflict in Syria, which focused on the regime's violent crackdown on peaceful protesters, is becoming more complex. Amidst reports of greater armed resistance and sectarian violence, there is also growing evidence that the number of defections from the army is increasing," notes risk consulting firm Maplecroft.

This is heartening news for the opposition as the 'Free Syrian Army (FSA) now has 15,000 defected soldiers in its midst.

"While the FSA does not represent an immediate threat to the Syrian army and the Ba'athist regime, the ongoing violent crackdown on dissent is likely to compel more soldiers to defect even if they risk execution by loyalists soldiers."

The opposition is faced with a tough reality. Should they use force to get their point across, at which point the Syrian President will go 'all-out' with wiping out the opposition, or should they resist peacefully which has seen thousands of unarmed Syrians killed?

"Despite the potentially high costs of greater armed resistance, the Libyan model of resistance could increasingly become the only viable alternative to civilian demonstrators as the limitations of peaceful protests become apparent," notes Maplecroft.

While both Tunisians and Egyptian achieved regime change without resorting toviolence, in both cases the military was on the side of the protestors. This is not the case as the military is aligned with President Al-Assad's regime.

"Although the FSA is unlikely to present an immediate threat to the regime, FSA forces may engage in a protracted insurgency against the regime. As a policy decision, it may expand its activities decisively beyond the protection of civilians to increase the number of offensive assaults against the Syrian army," notes Maplecroft.

While many anti-government activists oppose a shift towards armed resistance, the rigidity and continuous brutality of the regime is likely to increase the number of protesters willing to resort to force, notes Maplecroft. Significantly, the FSA has not been able to establish a geographical base from which an insurgency could be carried out and this constitutes a significant obstacle in its struggle against the regime.

The brutal death of Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi must have struck terror in the hearts of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and all those who support them.

Even Syria's staunchest ally Iran is finally losing patience with Al-Assad. A day after Gaddafi was killed, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad issued a stinging condemnation of the 'massacre' in Syria:
"We condemn killings and massacre in Syria, whether it is security forces being killed or people and the opposition," Ahmadinejad told Iranian state news agencies. "We have a clear formula for Syria and that it is for all sides to sit together and reach an understanding... therefore these killings cannot solve any problems and in the long term it will lead to a deadlock."

This must come as a huge blow for Al-Assad who is running short of political allies and needs economic support to keep the regime propped up.

Syria, which has seen more than 2,700 people killed, has paid the highest price in economic terms in the region, on account of the Arab Spring conflict, with total cost of around $27.30 billion to the economy, according to estimates by Geopolicity.

And the troubles are far from over for Bashar Al-Assad's regime.

Read Full Geopolicty report here: Arab Spring

"The Syrian economy continues to suffer as a result of the ongoing unrest, and it remains a possibility that the Sunni merchant class could question the costs of backing the ruling Ba'athist regime," notes Maplecroft.

The International Monetary Fund expects the Syrian economy to contract 2% this year as the European Union sanctions on Syrian oil imports dry up the country's revenue streams. Turkey is also planning to impose trade sanctions against its neighbour which could account for another $1.5-billion in lost trade.

Tourism, which accounts for $8.3-billion, or 8% of the country's GDP, has also taken a major hit as tourists stay away due to disturbing images of Syrian tanks on the streets of Damascus.

To make up for some of the shortfall, the Syrian government is imposing a 5% tax on public sector workers to generate revenues, but that is hardly a clever political move in times of great public dissent.

Also in doubt is the reported Iranian aid of $6-billion especially in light of Ahmedinajd's recent comments.

Maplecroft argues that while the FSA is unlikely to present an immediate threat to the regime, it may engage in a protracted insurgency against the regime, although there is serious opposition among anti-government activists to arm themselves and the fact that the FSA does not have a geographical launch pad to launch the insurgency.

"Although stronger armed resistance may ultimately be required to defeat the Ba'athist regime, the effects of seven months of largely peaceful protests on Bashar al-Assad's support base should not be discounted. Given the failure to contain protests and the lack of viable strategies to restore control, important figures within the ruling elite may eventually consider jumping ship," notes Maplecroft.

However, it must be noted that Libyan rebels benefited immensely from NATO's military and financial support. Intervention by western forces seems unlikely for now, given that a NATO-led confrontation with Damascus could also draw in Tehran.

With Europe nursing its own economic wounds and the United States rolling back its international war campaign after its announcement of withdrawing its troops from Iraq, there appears little appetite for western intervention in the country.