Budget promises to again go unfulfilled?

The Finance Minister's Union Budget-2011 was received with gaiety. The budget promised several things which would all lead to better economic growth for the country. A big promise that was made was to bring down the country's fiscal deficit to 4.6% of GDP from the 2010 level of 5.1%. And another was to provide all support so that the economic growth continues at the higher trajectory.

However, as time has progressed, the key promises of the Union Budget 2011 appear to be getting challenged. The reason- higher crude oil prices. Since the budget was announced in February this year, crude oil prices have increased substantially. In fact, crude oil has touched US$ 125 per barrel. This is way higher than the Budget estimate of US$ 95 per barrel. This has put substantial pressure on the Government's fuel subsidy bill particularly with respect to diesel which forms nearly 60% of the total fuel subsidy.

As a result, the government has come under pressure to increase the prices of diesel. If it decides to follow this path, then it adds to the risk of higher inflation. The inflation would be compounded in the event of a failure in monsoons or any other global turmoil that leads to higher commodity prices. In addition, diesel pricing is a sensitive issue for electoral votes.

Therefore, the government now stands on crossroads. If it decides to take the path of increasing diesel prices, it risks higher inflation. This would lead to further pressures in the economy in the form of higher interest rates as well as slowing economic growth. If it decides to do nothing and allow diesel prices to remain where they are, then it risks a higher subsidy bill. This would lead to a burgeoning fiscal deficit. In either case, the promises made in the Union Budget appear to be in danger of remaining on paper. However, it is important to remember that reading too much into short-term economic forecasts can be very risky for investment decisions.

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